tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg April 30, 2017 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
♪ haidi: china's recent growth spurt may be running out of steam as games are declining after two quarters -- mark: after -- haidi:after weak recovery. sony is on track, tracking a profit. betty: and turning up the heat on north korea, saying all options are on the table. sydney urgesfrom past 8:00 a.m.
it is daybreak australia, two hours away from the opening of the first major markets. p.m.: it is just past 6:00 in new york. we will be looking at key economic data over the weekend and how that will play into the asia-pacific trading day. let's recap how the u.s. markets closed on friday. a reminder, estimates softer, personal spending numbers also weaker than expected. the dow falling 40 points, the nasdaq and the s&p all closing lower, but fairly. pretty much flat. futures are trading, just picking up in the morning session here in monday. you can see barely unchanged. not a lot of movement like last weekend when we were watching the french elections and that impact on the markets. that is right, and it
could be about geopolitics going election next week. and the heightened tensions over north korea with pyongyang testing and other missile on saturday, it will be more of a china focus for the asian session. need to -- new zealand is down six days we have had of gains when it comes to aussie stocks. better than expected, china pmi data weighing on that. the hang seng is kind of static at the $.75 mark. going into the meeting tomorrow, no change expected from the central bank. ald is up 0.1%, crude falling quarter of 1%, concerns with libya, superseding the effort by opec to control the supply. iron or about 5%.
let's get to first word news with rosalind chin. washington said it is considering many options for , deeper sanctions and military action. they discussed the failed missile launch should not be tolerated. this came hours after rex tillerson urged the government to put pressure on pyongyang. trump says they will act alone if china does not restrain its ally. the european union will present a united front against brexit. the leaders met without the u.k. and are determined to stick together to dissuade others from leaving the block. tradeesident reiterated talks not begin until he calls official progress has been made on the withdrawal. a secondmacron has won
endorsement from chancellor merkel. she said he would make a strong president and it should not come as a surprise, compared to marine le pen. minister said he would back the cron if he could. -- emmanuel macron if he could. the number of full-time staff is rising for the first time since the international crisis, outpacing growth and temporary jobs over the past two years. economists say the move to temporary jobs is to blame for weak demand. the reserve bank of australia was likely to change tactics at today's meeting but has less incentive to move. the markets are up. they will be policy unchanged for nine months after recent data shows this going up. and redefining debt to allow the business of the project, adding
stimulus to the economy. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thanks for that. with china's economic growth, it has been accelerating, surprising, but there are signs that could turn. china's officially factory gauge fell. let's get more with adam. i suppose this is the first month without distortions, but what happens? adam: we are at the almost five-year high, so just come off that a little bit. there is three things playing into this slow down, the factor of stricter regulations. there is the property curves we have been hearing lots about over the last few months, and generally a higher base reducing prices. this is all to get a fighter
weaker pmi number over the weekend -- slightly weaker pmi number over the weekend. was also a drop in the services sector, already a six-month low. so these numbers speaking idea chinese growth is coming off, and our chief economist at bloomberg intelligence or asia, he thinks this might be the peak of chinese growth for this year. if you think of the context of global growth improving, it has been a bit of a downer for investors on that incentive, the strength of the economy. it brings things back a bit, and tighter monetary policy going forward, that we are expecting from the pboc to keep that down as well. betty: certainly some insight in the tone with these numbers. many markets are closed today for may day, but what is the focus for those open in australia and japan?
market days, not just in asia, across the region. the things we are looking at as we come back from the weekend, clearly the chinese number. the aussie has sold off a little bit this morning. you are seeing a bit of again strength in the weekends -- yen strength in the weekend, but the den was down very much last week. -- the yen was down a lot last week. contextd remember the of what is happening recently, but i think equity markets, this ed starts for australia and japan. let's see if this continues to build and weigh on change. this is back to central banks in australia on tuesday. be happy fomc -- we have the
fomc on wednesday, there is plenty of data from caixin on chinese pmi and services this week. building up later in the week to big u.s. data wednesday and friday, the big payrolls number, so there is a bit for traders to get through. the french presidential election, the last vote on sunday, it is probably not a weak really want to take a huge amount of risks. the base case is for emmanuel macron to win the vote. you would be brave to be taking any big risk position i think this week. betty: absolutely. you might want to stand back for a moment. thank you so much. let's look at the week ahead on wall street. it will bring a fresh round of earnings, apple, facebook, the lord -- the latest job numbers
and the fed meeting. chew on. investors to let's get more with su keenan. su: there is a big question on the direction of the market, where do we go from here? in the bloomberg, the s&p 500 was up 1.7 through thursday. looking at what we will see in terms of going ahead, this is a bullish signal for the s&p 500. the rally we have had with the french election that kick it off the beginning of the week put us above the 50 day moving average. signals saysth the it is going further ahead. the weekly closed on friday, that reminds us how that really that it is like the gdp number can put a hold on the rally. so tech could be the answer. we have tech earnings, and with
bloomberg once again, it shows us tech really has been the best performing sector. it takes the crown if you will, it is the place to be for many investors. but a lot of tech stocks are looking for his confirmation from the numbers and the outlook they get from these ceo's. outperforminge the other indexes as the chart shows. we have apple, facebook reporting this week. which all oftesla, these are near the course to their highs. facebook has had a giant run so far, almost 30% year to date. people are looking for earnings jumpare to drum 45% -- 45%. we are looking from the ceo on where they are going. there are of the issues coming to life. apple is one stock that has oh performed. a year ago, a huge run-up in the
stock had come to a halt, disappointing iphone sales. investors are expecting that apple will cure cancer and come up with the next product launch. so that will be a lot of focus on that. return, weraise cash will get more details on that. tesla is hinting at plans of a new gigabyte factory for this year. there will be a lot of focus on mass production of their model three. can they deliver on the high expectations of wall street? the stock is up -- it is incredible. betty: disappointment on any of these fronts could really be a bad day for the tech. haidi: yes, and we have gdp numbers. we are moving ahead to the jobs numbers. what are we expecting? a mixed butxpecting net positive picture for the
economy. let's talk about jobs data. we likely rebounded according to analysts surveyed. we will get the latest spending data, which was seen picking up last month, something the fed likes to look at. a lot of people believe the fed, which will be talking on wednesday, their move is already baked in the cake. , it is likely u.s. factory growth will slow in the last month. we got off to a strong start from the beginning of the year, and there has been slack in the latest data. as always, we will be focused on washington and president trump how he meets with australia's prime minister, malcolm turnbull. that will be something to focus on for australia and the u.s.. haidi: that is the right one, hope that meeting was better than the phone call.
♪ we are counting down to the sydney open when the few markets in asia open today on this monday. sydney futures are showing a lower open, slightly lower, little less than two hours away. haidi: you are watching daybreak australia. pretty flat across the board with mayday. chinese markets are closed. let's look at futures and how we
ended last week. we have six straight days of gains. we managed to stretch out the gain to six sessions. we will see it continue the winning streak. a little bit of downside when it comes to the future. let's take a look at the big aussie banks. they will report earnings in the coming days. our next guest is the top-ranked analyst when it comes to australia and new zealand banks. it was a pretty good season. >> we have two of the big things reporting, australia national and new zealand. we have this one strong over the
last six months. we get earnings upgrades that justify the strength of their shares, keep a close eye on the margins. they are raising rates for homeowners recently, and this could easily pressure on the banks. haidi: let's get over to scott. at, anddo be looking you expect the same themes as we saw in the u.s.? i think the challenge is the banks are raising rates for a reason. they are estimating -- underestimating the amount of drag from look into -- from elevated levels of competition, so we have headwinds. going forward, you have minor eps upgrades from sm cawley, but it is too early. betty: does that mean we have
hit peak in the stock prices, it is time to sell ahead of these results? seeing.eah, we are he wish and's -- full valuations. last xhe rally over the months as you highlighted, we .re getting a bit expensive they tend to not go far beyond that, so we are due for a time of consolidation. thing i think we are going to be looking at is whether the banks have been keeping pressure under control. that was a feature of the first quarter trading. how do you think they will be doing on cost? scott: i still think it is a bit of a long road ahead, some of the cost pressures quite sticky.
and the longer-term cost are trying to remove it from the organization, requires their great investment and technology solutions -- fair grade set investment and technology solutions. it is certainly a key priority for the banks. we don't expect significant earnings tailwinds. haidi: straley of being australia, mortgages and house --ces will certainly, up come up. is there any news we can expect out of here, or will it be more of the same? the bank doesn't think there was a bubble in australia. scott: i think the regulators are focused on where things are at right now. if there is commentary from the effort, there are concerns in the investor part of the market. they are concerned about ongoing
flow of credit into the economy to make sure there is a tight line of exoneration. he does a bit of a challenge for the reserve bank. they need to consider the brakes and try to slow down the formation of new credit. they are not overly penalizing -- one of the interesting things we are seeing is higher house products. what is really following significant house price rises. that is driving consumption, given wage growth is low. it is a tricky spot the have gotten themselves in. i expect them not to be cavalier in terms of shutting down credit growth. i expect moderate degree of credit in the economy, and they will do that for the next 12 to eight months. --ty: it is a credit data on balancing act. you don't want to do it too quickly or too hard and have
that spill down effect. for the banks themselves, they have been enjoying the buffeted earnings because of easy credit and all the lending. i wonder whether there will be certain payback time for this easy money they have been able to lend out, if there will be a payback period at some point in the near future. scott: but we don't think it is in the near future, but certainly credit growth estimates do these from current levels. we are looking at percentages in the early years, and we tend to find helpful slow down. it is incredible on the housing cycle. the business is their revenues are reduced from houses spending less as they filled debt regulations. one of the think businesses don't see is interest rates -- does see is low interest rates. they continue to manage through
that cycle, which is another reason why it is pretty tricky for the reserve bank to navigate. we think they will see this for some time. haidi: how is the regulatory environment looking? in the u.s. you have trump threatening to take part dodd-frank. you see changes when it comes to australia? some: they put forward recommendations around the middle of the year. one of the things we are looking for is leaning out of capital that has to get the mortgage board. they are looking at how to define the banking landscape, they don't expect material increase in capital for the mortgages. we do expect regularity. we think you will see more capital being held against higher mortgages and investor mortgages. that could be consumer-based
pricing to slow down the most vulnerable at this point in time. we don't really see any significant hardening or softening of standards related to what we are seeing out of the u.s. betty: thank you so much. scott manning of j.p. morgan australia. and also emily cadman as well for joining us. one feature on the bloomberg we would like to bring to your attention is the interactive tv function. you can find it at tv . you can watch us live and also see previews like what you saw. dive into any of the security functions we just talked about and become a part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg subscribers only, so check it out. ♪
york, you are watching daybreak australia. let's get the business flash headlines. sony's recovery has taken it forward with the company targeting its highest annual operating profit of $4.5 billion this fiscal year. sony is meeting more than ever on playstation were operating accounts are going to be a third of total profit. in order to maintain a high profit level, we should keep challenging new business areas, but we should not be too aggressive about the size. details and management will be announced by the ceo in may. haidi: tokyo opens later, forecasting a four-point -- 14% drop in profit. rising competition in the passenger car market in the u.s. honda posted a drop in u.s.
sales despite the larger than ever discounts. shelve ashiba may nuclear project in the u.k.. the company developing the project has warned suppliers of spending cuts. the report says nugent may ask the staff to transfer other businesses to return to their employers. toshiba had been facing pressure to secure financing to support a british nuclear project. haidi: one more story, potentially sad, a severe frost has hit vineyards in bordeaux, negative five temperatures. said this late crop affects the quantity but not quality of wine. they will ward off the frost by using helicopters to circulate warm air and lighting candles. betty: they are trying everything.
♪ haidi: it is 8:30 a.m. in sydney, the markets open in 90 minutes' time. we have had days in gains, treating expected around the region, the number of markets including hong kong and china being closed for the may day holiday. past: in new york it is 6:30 p.m. you are watching daybreak australia. let's get to first word news with rosalind chin. rosalind: the gauge of china's money factory coming in at 51.2, pmi dropped a low. signals growth
may slow employment as well. they are predicting stricter financial regulations likely to hit as well. stock on technology is planning u.s. se spending in the that emerge asked the chairman met president trump in washington. they are the biggest assembler electronic components including desktop monitors. he said he was planning a u.s. facility of $7 billion. mike pence has acknowledged the trump administration's tax plan may widen the deficit. he said the overall will not be revenue neutral. he also spoke much longer on how it would be different on repealing obamacare but it could be done by the end of the year. it had been on the 100 day to do
list, but it ended on saturday. this company is facing another corruption scandal with the chairman resigning. he is embroiled in a bribery where an american citizen has pleaded guilty to wire fraud and bribery of $1 million. most of the money came from kuwait and was used to buy influence. spacex has been forced to postpone its latest launch a second time because of a faulty sensor. it was scheduled for saturday but put in hold in minutes from lift off. it was delayed. it has reported the falcon 9 is carrying an american spy satellite, the first time it carries out work for the depends -- defense department. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's get you a quick
update on the markets. we are setting up for a quiet trading session here in australia and new zealand. it is a holiday throughout much of asia. of zealand downed a quarter 1%, futures in australia softer after that streak of gains for next week. .he aussie dollar was off a bit it was porter than expected. china pmi numbers falling from close to a five-year high in march. the u.s. gdp number disappointing as well. futures down 0.1%. let's take a look at what is happening around australia today. paul is here with us. there could be spikes when it comes to broadcasters. >> right now they pay about 3.4% for the u.s. the government is thinking of coming -- cutting that back.
we have people considering the flat rate of $40 million, which brings us to channel 10, and i wish we had talked about that last week. they had a horrible result, huge ride down, talking about the goingy may struggle to be forward. all sorts of stories over the weekend about how it might be worth more if it is broken up. this could give breathing room to the stock. it will be interesting to see how it opens. does this, they will ban gambling if it is during sports programming. betty: it is a big week for the rba, the cash rate meeting on tuesday, but other commentary to pay attention to as well. paul: the cash rate meeting almost a failure to complete, but there will be a speech in brisbane, expecting to have a strong focus on household debt,
a major factor for the governor. it will also have house rises. -- prices. then the monetary policy from the reserve bank. as i mentioned, the cash rate expected to stay on hold one point 5%, and the government indicated it will have infrastructure spending in the budget, it is likely to reinforce the bank's position. betty: and in line with the budget tradition of avoiding nasty surprises, details are trickling out. bad news if you are a university student, the government saying university revenues are growing faster than cost. there could be a fee rise on the horizon, so expect to see hand drinking about that -- ringing about that. and one of the proposed projects, railway between belden and brisbane. that would be good.
the government likely to contribute to the construction of sydney's second airport, but from the perspective of the reserve bank, it was terrific news that has been waiting a long time for the government to get on board with stimulus. deloitte says the stimulus maybe 20%, but it looks like their deficit is trending down as well. betty: thank you so much. a lot of exciting news out of australia this week. washington here is turning up the heat on north korea, warning all options are on the table following its latest missile test. trump has been talking to all of the allies, and the carl vinson has arrived. we got an interview over the weekend, noting the north korea leader is one smart cookie. >> it is not a surprise it is coming from president trump here
he is doing a diplomatic push across asia with the u.s.'s allies, singapore in particular. he talked with them on the phone. he spoke with the philippine president. he is also scheduled to speak with thailand leader in the next several hours potentially by the time morning comes around. as for the diplomatic push, there is a war of words. you can see north korean media now flaming the u.s. and south in themilitary drills regional seas around the korean peninsula. betty also mentioned the uss carl vinson, that is stoking tensions. earlier in the week, nhk released this video right here of the carl vinson battle group off the shores of nagasaki. ,t happened about an hour ago
an hour or so after north korea fired its most recent missile, early saturday. everyone was up in arms with this latest provocation. shinzo abe saying it is a great threat to our country, not acceptable, and strongly .ondemning such acts in tokyo, the metro was halted for 10 minutes around the 6:00 a.m. mark on saturday in response to that as well. there is more fallout, and you can expect that coming from donald trump himself. in a tweet, he said north korea, and this is aimed at china, north korea disrespected the wishes of china. he is pushing them to do more, saying the highly respected president has been disrespected when it launched a missile today. and then he said bad. then china's foreign minister the only way forward is through dialogue and negotiations. we cannot solve it through
force. he's trying to be the adult in the room by some accounts, saying don't fight here. no one wants more. basic principles, the first one, the declan -- denuclearize asian of north korea, and that dialects. andenuclearization dialogue. haidi: the same thing from shery ahn. we heard h.r. mcmaster saying he is willing a range of options. what are these? ramy: all the options we continue to speak about, but he reiterated this could come in the form of economic sanctions here. they could come in the form of military options, but donald trump did not say were commit that it would actually happen. anything and everything is now on the table.
mcmaster also said we have to do something, whether it involves u.n. sanctions or being prepared for military options. i want to point out one new development when it comes to the missile shield of south korea. mcmasters said he confirmed the united states will now pay for the thaad missile-defense system. should foot the bill for that, but then they turned around and mr. mcmasters saying the u.s. would pay for this. japan also saying it is considering buying a u.s. missile defense system, not the thaad, but something else by lockheed martin, around ¥80 billion, $700 million for each asset. betty: we have not heard the end of this by any means.
ratcheting tensions in north korea. normally when you hear something like this in the headlines or across the newspapers, it would be dollar positive, but it has been interesting watching the u.s. currency. come into my terminal, and you see a precipitous decline 7.rting in the week of april one to three weeks of declines in the dollar. despite the geopolitical tensions that are usually dollar positive, what has happened, there is a lot of doubt about the reflation trade. that was affirmed by the gdp numbers on friday. kathleen will go through that in a few moments. the euro strength we have seen after the french election, that bearishnessonto the on the u.s. dollar. we will see whether we make it for another week of declines in the u.s. currency, whether or not geopolitical tensions will come back and bring the
greenback backup. that is why people are saying, where is the reflation trade? it is not even in the currency markets. haidi: and what was it based on in the first place? you have mixed emotions when it comes to equities. but you have got to imagine geo policy is kind of the same, going back into the fall ahead of the french elections. also what happened over the weekend with north korea. it might be a difficult week when it comes to tokyo equities, because we had the 111 handle, 112. we see dollar weakness, that will not be -- it will create a headache for governor kuroda. betty: complicated. haidi: maybe they wanted to send a fruit basket. when it comes to the weakening yen. at the fed, why it may keep the rate hike strategy
♪ haidi: i am haidi lun in sydney. betty: i'm betty liu in new york. the fed expected to stick to its rate hike policy despite the week first quarter growth. we go to kathleen hays with more on the gdp numbers of friday, only expanding 0.7% through march. we know the first quarter is usually weaker, but how will the fed take these numbers? kathleen: they will be watching them closely, and good morning to all of the bloomberg viewers. another week in tokyo starts for me, and a big week of fed watching, no matter where you are in the world. it is interesting for starters,
in atlanta, they talk about the now cast. it was tracking as low as .2. so looking at the other gdp trackers -- you have to ask yourself is it the curse of first quarter gdp? let's look at the other display that will show you what i am talking about in terms of numbers. you have five data points. the first quarter of 2016, gdp through .8%. second quarter up to 1.4%, third quarter 3.5%. his slow down, so we are back to 0.7%. this is why the fed will look past it and say this number is screwy, don't look at it. but it is hard to get past of the consumer, something else to ponder. looks like consumers polled their wallets. consumer spending was 0.3%. it was up 3.5% last year.
the worst quarter -- the weakest fourth quarter of 2009, the middle of a deeper session. it wasn't just off sales, nondurable serving as well. one very big right point, first quarter investment was up 9.4%, the best since 2013, then the pce on a quarterly basis jumped at the 2.4% annual rate. this is something that caught the markets. betty: how did this affect the decision on interest rate? they've sounded determined to move ahead despite weaker numbers you outlined. week, the dates on the calendar is may 3, but there is no press conference, so that is one reason why the fed will not do anything. wait for more data. jump in to work. interesting rates, we will see
the odds of a june hike. may is barely on the map, but look to june, it is nearly 70%. across the whole spectrum of numbers, you will not find another month were the odds are up to 50% or higher. one more reason why there is all the more reason to focus on the jobs report on friday which su talked about earlier. who cares if we have weak gdp. we will see if we can hit the payrolls forecast 190,000. haidi: we had the reaction on the bond market, kathleen. what is the message being sent through from treasuries? kathleen: u.s. trading on friday, bonds sold off when they saw the pce number apparently. maybe people were not looking for it, but there is a talk of reflation trade, is it back?
we have the chief investment officer for global fixed income, goldman sachs asset management. he said the bond market has been doubting the fed would move as much as it said. here is what he said. >> everybody skeptical. they are skeptical about fiscal policy. they are skeptical about the economy, inflation. but the fed is not, and we are not. i think they will have to keep pushing, and they will raise rates. not much will happen at the next meeting, but they will keep moving rates higher, than the market will have to believe it. kathleen: and they have, at least those who have broke even. jump into this chart with me, #126. you can see the five-year forward inflation rate break even. a small gain, but people are wondering if there is enough force in the economy to push inflation higher, so the market
expectation is starting to budge a bit. the 10 year note yield was still 2.30ng down, under percent. not a big trade right now on inflation, but we get more numbers with the jobs report on friday. haidi: certainly. kathleen for us again in tokyo. let's get a quick check of the business flash headlines. the biggest bank reported is strongest really profit growth in two years. to $11ome rose 1.4% billion last quarter. china's top lenders have been hit by default, but their profit outlook may be improving with strengthen the economy. nine -- 1.9% increase for the same time. betty: trading revenue from barclays, deutsche bank, ubs,
and credit suisse fell in the first quarter compared to a 15% increase with the biggest american rival. the european takes -- banks total share also dropped for a second straight quarter. furioushe fate of the has topped the north american box office for a third straight weekend. -- we havebrought in brought $1 million in ticket sales, more than what analysts were expecting. ,he circle which has tom hanks came in at a disappointing fourth, $9.3 million. betty: i am trying hard not to watch that movie. we keep mentioning it like repeated osmosis. haidi: i have not watched any of them. we are too busy. much more ahead, speaking about the fed. alan greenspan said trump has a problem with his budget.
♪ betty: president trump has marked his first 100 days in the white house, and alan greenspan said it has been a mixed bag. he said the budget numbers just don't add up. if you want to make the cuts in social benefits , which would be required to fund the type of programs he has brought forward. remember, it is all taxes and military expansion, because we have been enjoying a period where the share of the gdp going into our military was at the lowest levels since 1940. presencemaintain the
that we are trying to maintain militarily unless we come back with a significant amount. so the budget outlook is not only a tax question, but it is also a military question. and trump has said both. it is arithmetic, and it is a problem. tremendoust either reduction in some areas of the economy, or you will get a fairly large budget deficit. the figures for march, which are difficult to see, which are the latest standard, or showing significant up spike in the budget deficit. that is the beginning of a move which will take quite a long time. reporter: but it is critical to growth to have tax cuts but not
increased deficit. is it only from entitlements you can get the money? what about taxes additures? what people will say is there are all sorts of deductions and loopholes and deductions, special interest out of the tax code, get real reduction in rates, broaden the base, as they say, and not increase the deficit. >> for amber simpson bowles? -- remember simpson bowles? it was a program president obama put together for this particular problem. it was a bipartisan commission and did precisely what you are suggesting, lined up all of the tax expenditures and lined up the benefits. they brought deficit down to normal. supportad bipartisan probably could have passed the
obamaand senate, but doesn't listen to his commission he put together. that was the worst mistake that i think you made economically. carrying forward now, what we have done is used up a lot of the goodies that was available to simpson bowles, so we don't ability of doing this thing now, but we should be doing something else. haidi: that was the former fed chair alan greenspan speaking to david westin. that is about it for daybreak australia. and what an eventful 100 days it has been. betty: absolutely, and we have been using a lot of goodies in order to get some things done. it will have to be the next 100 days where we see results coming for investors to feel confident.
>> it is a 7:00 a.m. in hong kong. ishington says it considering several options from deeper sanctions to military action. a white house official said saturday's failed missile launch was not to be tolerated, coming hours after rex tillerson urged the united nations security council to raise pressure on pyongyang. president trump has threatened to act alone if china does not rein in its ally. the first official economic indicators